Project Air Force Modeling Capabilities for Support of Combat Operations in Denied Environments

This report documents the modeling framework Project AIR FORCE (PAF) developed to analyze the support of combat operations in a denied environment. The models help illuminate combat support requirements, basing posture vulnerabilities, operational resilience, and capability trade-offs. Specifically, the modeling framework addresses four questions: (1) How does dispersed basing affect combat support resource requirements, and how many operating locations can be supported? (2) Where should combat support resources be stored and maintained to enable rapid deployment and employment of forces in the Pacific theater? (3) How vulnerable are U.S. air bases in denied environments, given current and planned capabilities? (4) What is the right mix and level of investment in active and passive defense materiel solutions to ensure resilience against a range of adversary kinetic attack strategies? The PAF framework consists of four models. The Strategic Tool for the Analysis of Required Transportation (START) estimates manpower and equipment requirements to support a given basing posture in a combat scenario. The RAND Overseas Basing Optimization Tool (ROBOT) identifies the least-cost allocation of war reserve materiel. The Theater Air Base Vulnerability Assessment Model (TAB-VAM) analyzes trade-offs among basing strategies, determines the effect of adversary attacks on sortie generation, and examines the effectiveness of threat mitigation options. The Theater Air Base Resiliency Optimization Model (TAB-ROM) finds the most cost-effective way to improve sortie generation against a range of enemy attack strategies for a given scenario. Together these models can inform decisions concerning force posture, cost-asymmetric investments, and theater-shaping strategies in denied environments.