China's energy and security relations with Russia2011

Fifteen years have passed since China and Russia formed a 'strategic cooperative partnership' in 1996, and 2011 marks the 10th anniversary of their 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation. Considering the significant changes that have taken place in China and Russia over this period, it is well worth assessing the meaning of the China-Russia 'strategic partnership' and their declared 'good-neighbourly' relations. The 'strategic partnership' falls short of the aspirational official rhetoric of both sides. There are three common threads in the views of Chinese policymakers and analysts regarding the China-Russia partnership: pragmatism, lack of political trust and the US factor. While some of the grander expectations of China-Russia relations are unlikely to develop, the two countries will nevertheless avoid antagonizing one another and will find common interests in a stable relationship. The relationship may encounter tension over specific issues, but it is relatively resistant to long-term damage because of the pragmatism of both parties and the willingness to discuss differences behind closed doors. China and Russia will continue to be pragmatic partners of convenience, but not partners based on deeper shared world views and strategic interests. In the coming years, while relations will remain close at the diplomatic level, the two cornerstones of the partnership over the past two decades -- military and energy cooperation -- will continue to crumble. As a result, Russia's significance to China will continue to diminish.