Natural resources, institutions, and civil war

A growing literature in economics and political science argues that natural-resource-abundant countries are more likely to be governed by corrupt governments and experience political instability. The experience of Mexico during 1880-1930 casts doubt on this hypothesis. Mexico's mining industry grew rapidly under a very corrupt dictatorship. When that dictatorship fell and the polity lapsed into civil war, the mining industry was barely affected. The Mexican case suggests that extractive industries may be remarkably insensitive to changes in economic institutions or political instability. Causality may run from corrupt government or civil disorder to an economy relatively dependent on natural resource extraction, rather than the other way around.